Use Three-Point Estimates, PERT, and Monte Carlo-Style Schedule-Risk Methods

Analytical Methods & Quantitative Decision Support

Probability, expected value, variance and covariance help describe uncertain demand, failures and schedule exposure. Event-arrival models, state-transition models and queueing relationships connect operating variability with staffing, availability, cycle time and work in process. Scenario analysis makes the consequences of assumptions visible before a commitment is made.

The Subject

Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Support

Explore the Activities

Schedule uncertainty is relevant to the cited schedules. A completed Monte Carlo or PERT analysis is not asserted.

Conceptual engineering illustration: project controls

TSK-000017 · Method

Developed the AFE, Schedule, Exclusions, Value-Engineering Decisions and Permitting Plan; Defined Sealed-Drawing, Routing-Plan and Soil-Report Requirements

Acetator Expansion Engineering AFE and Code Deliverables

Case: Acetator Expansion Engineering AFE and Code DeliverablesProject: Acetator Expansion Project + VOC Scrubber Systems

Application context. Which uncertainty can change the decision and what evidence would reduce it?

TSK-000188 · Action

P&IDs, PFD, Instrument List, Control Narrative, Electrical Power Plan, 3D Scan, 29-30 Week APO Schedule, and A207360 Schedule

Boiler System Overhaul and Steam / Condensate Optimization

Develop Process Drawings and Control Narratives Develop Instrument and Loop Documentation Develop Electrical Drawings and Load Schedules Plan Boiler-Room Infrastructure and Permits Plan Schedules, Resources and Critical Sequencing

Case: Boiler System Overhaul and Steam / Condensate OptimizationProject: Boiler System + Plant Steam & Condensate Optimization

Application context. Which uncertainty can change the decision and what evidence would reduce it?

Related Capabilities

Evaluate Uncertainty and Event LikelihoodApplication relationship
Why these connect
Analyze schedule uncertainty and risk connects with evaluate uncertainty and event likelihood. Connect scenarios, failure consequences, mitigations and accountable decision thresholds.
Plan Schedules, Resources and Critical SequencingApplication relationship
Why these connect
Plan schedules, resources and critical sequencing connects with analyze schedule uncertainty and risk. Connect scheduling methods to real procurement, installation and operating constraints.

Related Case Studies

Acetator Expansion Engineering AFE and Code DeliverablesApplication relevance
Boiler System Overhaul and Steam / Condensate OptimizationApplication relevance

Related Projects

Acetator Expansion Project + VOC Scrubber SystemsApplication relevance
Boiler System + Plant Steam & Condensate OptimizationApplication relevance

Related Workstreams

Steam and Boiler System ModernizationApplication relevance
Vinegar Acetation and Fermentation-Support ModernizationApplication relevance

Related Artifact Types

Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Support — Application ReviewCapability application review

All Portfolio Connections

All portfolio connections (13)

Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Support — Application Review Review artifact
Evaluate Uncertainty and Event Likelihood Application relationship
Plan Schedules, Resources and Critical Sequencing Application relationship
Acetator Expansion Engineering AFE and Code Deliverables Application relevance
Boiler System Overhaul and Steam / Condensate Optimization Application relevance
Steam and Boiler System Modernization Application relevance
Vinegar Acetation and Fermentation-Support Modernization Application relevance
Acetator Expansion Project + VOC Scrubber Systems Application relevance
Boiler System + Plant Steam & Condensate Optimization Application relevance
Developed the AFE, Schedule, Exclusions, Value-Engineering Decisions and Permitting Plan; Defined Sealed-Drawing, Routing-Plan and Soil-Report Requirements Application relevance
P&IDs, PFD, Instrument List, Control Narrative, Electrical Power Plan, 3D Scan, 29-30 Week APO Schedule, and A207360 Schedule Application relevance
Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Support Existing portfolio connection
Analyze Schedule Uncertainty and Risk Existing portfolio connection